Market Overview
The ASX 200 closed lower on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of Tuesday's RBA Board meeting, with precious and base metal miners leading the selloff. The benchmark dropped 90.50 points or 1.02% to 8,778.60, marking its steepest loss in two months and crossing below its 125-day moving average. Global equity markets remained volatile, with the S&P 500 down 0.43% and the Nasdaq Composite falling 0.94% as tech underperformance continued despite Apple's earnings beat.
Index & Breadth
The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,778.60, down 90.50 points or 1.02%, reaching its lowest closing level since 12 January. Eight of 11 sectors finished lower, reflecting broad-based weakness across the market. The index has declined 0.92% over the past five days but remains virtually unchanged year-to-date.
Sectors
Top Performers
- Telecommunications Services: +0.50% – outperformed amid broader market weakness
- Financials: +0.14% – slight gains as investors rotated defensively
- Utilities: +0.02% – defensive positioning ahead of rate decision
Underperformers
- Materials: -3.09% – precious and base metal miners weighed down by commodity price weakness
- Energy: -2.00% – energy stocks slid as oil sentiment remained pressured
- Health Care: -1.65% – cyclical weakness extended into healthcare names
Stock Highlights
Standout Gainers
- Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC): +6.55% to $1.220 – emerged as top gainer on the day
- DroneShield Limited (DRO): +3.92% to $3.450 – solid gains in aerospace and defence
- Whitehaven Coal Limited (WHC): +3.28% to $9.120 – coal sector resilience despite broader materials weakness
- New Hope Corporation Limited (NHC): +2.66% to $4.630 – energy commodity exposure supported the move
Underperformers
- GrainCorp Limited (GNC): -14.03% to $6.190 – largest decliner on the ASX 200
- Newmont Corporation (NEM): -10.00% to $155.960 – gold miner hit by precious metals flash crash
- Emerald Resources NL (EMR): -9.26% to $6.760 – gold exposure weighed on junior miners
- Ora Banda Mining Ltd (OBM): -8.99% to $1.165 – gold sector weakness extended to smaller cap names
Commodities & FX
Gold fell sharply to AUD 6,650.65 per ounce, representing an 8.9% decline amid a flash crash in precious metals. Silver dropped more dramatically to AUD 121.57 per ounce, down 26% from earlier levels as risk-off sentiment gripped commodity markets. Platinum traded at AUD 2,904.88 per ounce and palladium at AUD 2,500.65 per ounce. The AUD/USD exchange rate stood at 0.6905, reflecting currency pressure amid broader market volatility.
Rates & Macro
The RBA Board meets on Tuesday 03/02 at 2:30 pm AEDT, with the rates market pricing in an 18 basis point probability (75%) of a 25 basis point rate hike. The December labour force report showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% from 4.3%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.4%. Q4 inflation data released this week showed the RBA's preferred measure, the trimmed mean, rising 0.9% quarter-on-quarter to push the annual rate to 3.4%, exceeding the RBA's own 3.2% forecast. The market has already priced in a second 25 basis point rate hike by August 2026.
Takeaways
- The ASX 200 fell 1.02% to 8,778.60 on Monday, marking its worst session in two months as investors braced for Tuesday’s RBA decision
- Materials sector led declines with a 3.09% drop, driven by precious and base metal miners following a 26% collapse in silver prices and 8.9% fall in gold
- GrainCorp Limited plunged 14.03% to become the worst performer, while Nine Entertainment gained 6.55% as the session’s top gainer
- The rates market is now pricing 75% probability of a 25 basis point RBA rate hike on Tuesday, up from 68% at the start of the week, following stronger-than-expected inflation data
- Gold and silver experienced a flash crash following news of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Federal Reserve, triggering a broad risk-off shift in commodity and equity markets
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