General Market Overview
After October’s sugar-rush, November delivered a reality check. Major equity indices drifted lower.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) stood out for it’s weakness against global indices.
The cause was a sudden uptick in inflation for the September quarter. The headline number came in an 3.2% annualised and the trimmed mean – The RBA’s preferred measure – was 3%.
This puts us squarely, and rather quickly back at the top of the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. Our stock market, and undoubtedly many first home buyers were clinging desperately to the promise of looser monetary policy for longer.
Well, that’s out the window and the market has almost completely priced out rate cuts for 2026.
As shown in the following chart, the December 2026 90-day bank bill futures have priced out almost two full cuts since the highs of mid-October.
Source: TradingView
Since the highs in late October, our index paired back as much as 8%, closing the 24th of November near a 6.5% fall.
The U.S. also delivered its own turning point, with E-Mini S&P500 Futures slipping as much as 6% to close down 4.3%.
Investors are becoming more cautious after months of strong momentum, and early cracks appearing in the crypto space.
Overall, while October was all about confidence returning, November was a reminder that markets can shift quickly, and sentiment remains highly sensitive to both global data and policy expectations.
Technology Sector
The ASX Information Technology sector (ASX:XIJ) has been ravaged in recent months, down as much as 28% since September highs.
The down move accelerated in November, but seems to have stabilised in recent days. It is, however, a sector known for it’s wild swings, exacerbated but the relatively small number of stocks in the S&P 200 (14 at last count). It’s still trading above the lows formed in April.
Source: TradingView
Local names such as BrainChip (ASX:BRN), Appen (ASX:APN), Wisetech (ASX:WTC), Altium (ASX:ALU), and NextDC (ASX:NXT) all suffered, reflecting a shift toward selective positioning rather than broad sector buying.
Demand for data-centre infrastructure, automation, and AI-driven enterprise tools continued to support the long-term narrative, but near-term sentiment was weighed down by volatility in global peers and uncertainty around the interest-rate outlook.
This looks severely like an oversold buying opportunity for those willing to take a long- term view. So, of course, we wrote about it this week. In our view, the markets are not appropriately pricing how disruptive AI is going to be. We explore the key concept to understanding this disruption in this article.
We also added a tech stock to our Explosive Growth stock recommendation portfolio for November.
It’s a small company you’ve likely never heard of with revenues already ramping up, and adoption starting to take off. The best part is the dirt-cheap valuation at ~$5 million market cap.
Energy Sector
The S&P 200 Energy sector (ASX:XEJ) early in November but has pared that to be sitting relatively flat on the month. A surge in renewable energy production and a drop in global oil prices are key themes driving price action
There was renewed interest in transition-aligned plays, including lithium and critical minerals producers, although these moved more unevenly as investors weighed demand concerns against long-term structural themes.
Overall, the sector provided a degree of stability in an otherwise unpredictable month, acting as a defensive anchor while other parts of the market experienced sharper swings.
Gold and Silver
Gold remained strong this month, after surging to its all-time high in October. It traded up as much as 6%, settling back to a more reasonable 2% gain on the month. But the chart looks bullish, with classic higher lows forming.
Silver also had an outstanding month, reaching gains of almost 12%, all-time highs if not for last month’s top of $81.73/oz. It looks to be closing out the month with a ~3.5% gain.
Standout stocks:
Droneshield Ltd (ASX:DRO)
Droneshield, after hitting an all-time high last month at $6.71, has come crashing down below $1.80.
Shares plummeted after its US CEO resigned, effective immediately, leaving investors in a spin.
This comes hot on the heels of massive director liquidations of stock and potentially misleading statements around new contracts being withdrawn.
Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR)
Liontown saw renewed interest, trading up as much as 37%, and a recent pullback still
seeing it up 17% since the start of the month. The major news is production kicking off at its Kathleen Valley project, as well as major deals with automakers, and a recent capital raise
New ASX additions:
Some noticeable additions to the ASX include Black Horse Mining (ASX:BHL), Moonlight Resources, (ASX:ML8), Equus Energy, (ASX:EQU), and Sea Forest (ASX:SEA).December Outlook for the ASX - Key Themes & Risks
With this update coming out a few days before the end of the month, we’re yet to see the Australian inflation print expected on the 26th of November. This is the most pivotal piece of data for the Australian market.
Confirmation of high inflation could see selling in bonds and equities intensify, as the market begins to price in rate hikes for 2026.
A print at 2.8% or under should provide a boost to our market as runaway inflation concerns subside.
Markets remain sensitive to any shift in RBA policy guidance and will be especially wary of attempts of the RBA to ‘jawbone’ the market into pricing in rate hikes for next year.
Globally, geopolitical tensions and softer demand signals from China could pressure risk sentiment, particularly for resource-exposed sectors. Commodity markets are also in focus, with base metals showing relative resilience while bulk commodities face demand uncertainty.
Valuations across parts of the market remain stretched, leaving equities more vulnerable to volatility if macro data disappoints.
Key themes to look out for:
Rate-Cut Expectations:
Markets remain highly sensitive to RBA and Fed signals; any shift in tone could drive sector rotations.
Commodity Momentum:
Base metals show some resilience, while bulk commodities (iron ore, coal) face demand uncertainty, especially tied to China.
China Growth Signals:
Policy support, industrial output, and property data from China will continue to influence Aussie miners and the AUD.
While it’s easy to over-emphasise the market pullback of the last few weeks, it’s important to maintain perspective. The S&P200 is still up on the year and we’ve no reason to go jumping at shadows.
A valuation adjustment is necessary as we reposition rate expectations for 2026. But the markets are still looking strong and healthy.
The question now, is whether a Santa Clause rally can get us back to those juicy double digit returns on the year.
NOTE: Due to scheduling restraints, this month’s market update is being released a
bit earlier, with figures taken aftermarket on the 24th of November.
Happy Investing from the Vitti Capital family.
Disclaimer
This information is of a general nature only and has been prepared without taking into account
your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of the
information, having regard to your circumstances, before making any investment decisions.
This communication is not personal financial advice. Vitti Capital is a Corporate Authorised
Representative of Point Capital Group Pty Ltd (AFSL 518031).
If you have not previously received a copy of our Financial Services Guide (FSG), it is available
free of charge from our website (https://vitti.capital/fsg/) or by contacting us. “Vitti Capital and its
representatives may hold or have exposure to securities mentioned. Any such interest is
managed under our Conflicts of Interest Policy (https://vitti.capital/privacy-policy-2/).”
