September kept investors on edge.
August set records near 8,900 on the ASX200. Then the mood snapped. On 3rd September, the index fell 1.82 percent, about $57 billion gone in a day. Higher global bond yields, patchy earnings, stretched valuations. That was the mix. September is usually the soft spot for the ASX200.
Earnings season swings have sparked some of the sharpest pullbacks over the past decade. Even so, the index is up more than 7.5 % percent over twelve months. Dividends sweeten that run.
The S&P 500 pushed to fresh highs. Big Tech led,
AI Mania Continues
Big Tech and AI names carried momentum. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts helped risk appetite.
Nvidia flagged a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel, keeping the chip story in the headlines.
The crowd is still paying up for computer and software leverage.
Energy Takes A Hit
The energy sector has been a rollercoaster.
The Ukraine-Russia grind kept oil jumpy and continued to play havoc with investors pockets.
Woodside (ASX:WDS) fell over 11%. Santos (ASX:STO) fell even harder on a failed deal, down 13.75%.
While the smaller cap Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) had a more modest 3.12% decline, it was already well off its highs in August.
The energy index is down 8.2% month to date.
Commodities
Gold had a strong month, surging 10.3% to $5,822/oz. The strong bull trend continues!
Expectations of interest rate cuts, easier monetary policy in the US are making gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset.
As yields drop, the opportunity cost of holding gold falls.
Other metals are starting to feel the buzz as well, with Copper futures up 6.47% and silver storming 18.88% higher.
Uranium is also catching some spotlight, with a 13.83% lift.
ASX-200 Rebalance Shake Up
In the September review, 9 new stocks were added to the S&P/ASX 200:
- Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure(ASX:DBI)
- DroneShield(ASX:DRO)
- Ebos Group (ASX:EBO)
- GQG Partners(ASX:GQG)
- Greatland Resources(ASX:GGP)
- IperionX (ASX:IPX)
- Perenti (ASX:PRN)
- Superloop (ASX:SLC)
- Tuas(ASX:TUA).
Companies removed include Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX:CU6), Nufarm(ASX:NUF), Polynovo(ASX:PNV), Smartgroup (ASX:SIQ) among others.
The Macro Picture is Steady
GDP continues to gain traction, with a 1.8% increase for the year, well above the sub 1% numbers being printed in 2024.
inflation eased to 2.1% in Q2 2025, the lowest since early 2021 and a touch under market expectations. Good growth, cooler prices.
The combination of high GDP and low inflation means the good times are continuing, but there’s no urgency for the RBA to start hiking rates.
The market has dramatically pulled back interest rate expectations for the year as we predicted back in May.
While the unemployment rate did increase to 4.3%, that’s sitting pretty well on target, rather than problem territory.
For the time being it’s looking like the RBA has it’s settings locked down.
The bond market is still pricing in 35 basis points of cuts over the next 12 months, as shown in the RBA Rate Tracker below.
Source: TradingView
RBA Rate Tracker (Source: ASX / RBA)
RBA announced an unchanged rate on Tuesday 30th September to maintain the cash rate at 3.60%.
Vitti Capital’s Standout Stock
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (ASX:LDX)
LDX is our top pick over the month. Opening at 13 cents and storming to 19 cents.
The catalyst was a major U.S. distribution deal for its FebriDx viral/bacterial test with PHASE Scientific, valued at up to US$317 million ($487 million).
Vitti Capital published a ‘Buy’ recommendation on LDX on the 1st of September. You can view that report here.
We’re watching a channel support, shown in the below chart in blue, as the next obvious technical support, particulary as it coincides with a support at 13.5 cents.
Source: TradingView
Vitti’s Trading Month
As part of our continuous identification of opportunities for our clients, we participate in private placements (PP). PPs are capital-raising offers whereby raising firms list new shares and/or op- tions to a select few investors, more times than not, wholesale investors.
We were exposed to several ASX PPs, delineated here:
Notes:
- Entries sorted using settlement data in ascending order
- Table does not include annualised positions, this are positions from the settlement date to 30/09/25 close using a simple holding period return computation
- Table does not include options attached; it is purely stocks computed
Stock Name | Issue Price | Settlement Date | Price as at 30/09/25 close | Position |
Nimy Resources (NIM) | $0.06 | 01/09/25 | $0.068 | 13% outperformance |
Archtis (AR9) | $0.15 | 02/09/25 | $0.14 | 7% underperformance |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.105 | 03/09/25 | $0.11 | 5% outperformance |
Buru Energy (BRU) | $0.02 | 04/09/25 | $0.019 | 5% underperformance |
Pure Hydrogen Corp (PH2) | $0.085 | 04/09/25 | $0.081 | 5% underperformance |
Krakatoa Resources (KTA) | $0.0105 | 17/09/25 | $0.01 | 5% underperformance |
Xamble Group (XGL)1 | $0.012 | 18/09/25 | $0.015 | 25% outperformance |
EV Resources (EVR) | $0.008 | 18/09/25 | $0.013 | 63% outperformance |
ABx Group (ABX) | $0.064 | 18/09/25 | $0.068 | 6% outperformance |
West Wits Mining Limited (WWI) | $0.04 | 18/09/25 | $0.048 | 20% outperformance |
Kuniko (KNI) | $0.07 | 19/09/25 | $0.07 | Neutral |
Tivan (TVN) | $0.1 | 23/09/25 | $0.11 | 10% outperformance |
Neurizon Therapeu- tics (NUZ) | $0.1 | 23/09/25 | $0.13 | 30% outperformance |
Altitude Minerals (ATT) | $0.022 | 26/09/25 | $0.031 | 41% outperformance |
Impact Minerals (IPT) | $0.0065 | 26/09/25 | $0.006 | 8% underperformance |
Way 2 Vat (W2V) | $0.008 | 26/09/25 | $0.009 | 13% outperformance |
Decidr AI Industries (DAI) | $0.9 | 26/09/25 | $0.83 | 8% underperformance |
Prospech (PRS) | $0.015 | 30/09/25 | $0.018 | 20% outperformance |
Notes:
- Entries sorted using settlement data in ascending order
- Table does not include annualised positions, this are positions from the settlement date to 30/09/25 close using a simple holding period return computation
- Table does not include options attached; it is purely stocks computed
Looking Ahead
October promises to be eventful.
There’s half a cut baked into the bond markets. The case for another cut is weak. But, either way, the bonds need to shuffle themselves either up or down before the end of the year.
Beginning 1st October, the Federal Government’s Home Guarantee Scheme is being expanded, and it will be a watch and see with the unchanged rates decision.
Trump has suggested higher tariffs on imports from China and the EU. If discussions intensify in October, Australian exporters could be impacted.
China's stimulus is crucial for Australian miners. Keep an eye on Chinese industrial output and property market data in October.
The recently announced Trump Gaza plan could impact energy stocks if it gets the green light.
We continue to closely monitor the quickly evolving energy transition in Australia. Check out our recent articles on batteries and biofuels.
We are also closely watching the EV story, which may be coming up to another burst of activity.
Source: TradingView
Disclaimer
This information is of a general nature only and has been prepared without taking into account
your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider the appropriateness of the
information, having regard to your circumstances, before making any investment decisions.
This communication is not personal financial advice. Vitti Capital is a Corporate Authorised
Representative of Point Capital Group Pty Ltd (AFSL 518031).
If you have not previously received a copy of our Financial Services Guide (FSG), it is available
free of charge from our website (https://vitti.capital/fsg/) or by contacting us. “Vitti Capital and its
representatives may hold or have exposure to securities mentioned. Any such interest is
managed under our Conflicts of Interest Policy (https://vitti.capital/privacy-policy-2/).”
Stock Name | Issue Price | Settlement Date | Price as at 30/09/25 close | Position |
Nimy Resources (NIM) | $0.06 | 01/09/25 | $0.068 | 13% outperformance |
Archtis (AR9) | $0.15 | 02/09/25 | $0.14 | 7% underperformance |
Core Lithium (CXO) | $0.105 | 03/09/25 | $0.11 | 5% outperformance |
Buru Energy (BRU) | $0.02 | 04/09/25 | $0.019 | 5% underperformance |
Pure Hydrogen Corp (PH2) | $0.085 | 04/09/25 | $0.081 | 5% underperformance |
