Newsletter

July had two storylines running at once. Old economy and defensive names held their
ground: the Dow Jones logged a fourth consecutive winning month, and the ASX 200 did the
same, closing the month at 8,976.8 points (IG, 2026; Motley Fool Australia, 2026). Big tech
did not fare as well. The Nasdaq-100 fell around 7%, its worst month since March 2025
(CNBC, 2026), as investors stopped rewarding AI spending on faith and started asking
which companies could show revenue for it.

We were going so well. But peace didn’t hold, and by month end the market was pricing that in too.

The Iran ceasefire, confirmed June 12 and signed June 17 in Versailles following the G7, did what four months of geopolitical pressure could not (BBC, 2026). Brent crude fell from $97 to
$75, a 22% drop in a single month and the worst since the pandemic crash (CNBC, 2026). The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz pulled a major supply risk premium out of oil markets (Al Jazeera, 2026).

You can’t say May was boring.
The Nasdaq 100 futures (CME:NQ1!) closed the month up 9.82% at 30,307. S&P 500 futures (CME:ES1!) added 4.67%, closing at 7,582. Wall Street had one of its best months of the year. The AI trade came back with conviction, earnings beat expectations, and the market decided it wasn’t going to wait for anyone.

April was a relief rally.
After the brutal March selloff sparked by the Iran/Hormuz crisis, which we covered in This Too Shall Pass, the bid came back hard.
The S&P 500 (SP:SPX) put on +10.4% close to close, finishing at 7,209. The S&P printed an all-time high of 7,220 on 30 April itself. The Nasdaq-100 (NASDAQ:NDX) added +15.6% to 27,452, and made a fresh
12-month high of 27,488 on the same day.

It’s been a month of carnage.
The US and Israel escalated their confrontation with Iran into open kinetic conflict. Bombs, assassinations, and missile strikes that pierced

Opening Snapshot Global markets have had a very strong February. The US Federal Reserve stayed on hold at its late-January meeting, but the minutes made one thing clear. Policymakers are split on what comes next. Some are open to hikes if inflation refuses to cool. Others want cuts if disinflation returns. Even AI made its […]

Monthly Markets Update – January 2026 January kicked off the year with a strong and calm equity environment. Big themes worked, but not everything went along for the ride. Precious metals were off the charts with exuberance, while parts of tech cooled off again, and anything exposed to policy risk got slapped around. Volatility is […]

General Market Overview December has delivered an unusually quiet end to the year after a messy 12 months of twists and turns. After a year that tested patience, discipline, and conviction, markets chose to slow the pace rather than sprint into year-end. Following October’s highs and November’s rebound, December was about digestion. Profit-taking crept in. […]

General Market Overview After October’s sugar-rush, November delivered a reality check. Major equity indices drifted lower. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 (ASX:XJO) stood out for it’s weakness against global indices. The cause was a sudden uptick in inflation for the September quarter. The headline number came in an 3.2% annualised and the trimmed mean – […]

General Market Overview October flipped the switch back to optimism. After a shaky September, markets found their footing, led by falling yields, tech strength, and gold mania. By mid-month, the ASX 200 was back above 9,000, touching fresh record highs. The Fed whispering about rate cuts before Christmas has been fuel to the fire for […]